Renewable MOS
Description
Renewable MOS (Model output statistics) is a localised power forecast based on the radiation or wind forecast of multiple weather models and historical power measurements of wind turbines or solar power plants. Thereby, the model output is corrected statistically by the function developed from the measurement data (Model Output Statistics), using the weather forecasts from multiple models as a basis. The forecast is adjusted to the local station, using quality-controlled measurements from the site which needs to be available over at least 1 year and in hourly intervals.
General Process
Power forecasts can be optimized by using statistical post-processing algorithms. The improvement of the forecast is depending on several site-specific conditions. On average, an improvement of 30% (e.g. reduce MAE from 35% to 25%) is realistic. To assure the functionality of the post-processing algorithms, a quality-control procedure for the measurement data is crucial.
For each MOS training meteoblue applies the following procedure:
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Delivery of measurement data in standard format
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Measurement quality control
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Forecast API configuration
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Delivery of MOS setup report
Methodology
meteoblue algorithms use a conditional MOS, which combines a simple neural network with improved meteoblue MOS technology. The algorithms differentiate between multiple weather conditions to find the best fit of linear regression for more than 30 weather variables from multiple weather models. The resulting forecast algorithm is individually designed for the specific site and provides the best possible forecast (state of the art) via a special API set for the specific application and location.
MOS Forecast Variables
The possible forecast variables and range/intervals are: